Financial Research (Yay...)

Hallo everybody. I had an idea for something that might work in game, but I wanted to run it by the forum first.
The idea is that your average financial trader in the boarse will want to have an idea how the markets are going to sway. Now, the biggest input into Empire’s material economy is through the personal resources of the players. Therefore, the resource type chosen by each player and how far they may or may not have been upgraded are the main determiners of the value of shares in boarse seats.
For example, if one event significantly more players are taking green iron mines for whatever reason, then this should cause the price of green iron to decrease and owners of shares in green iron boarse seats to lose out. Similarly, if more players have ambergelt forests then ambergelt will go up in value.
Therefore, what if a player spent some time each event with a notebook basically surveying players from each nation to work out what their personal resource is and how much it might produce of each resource. By doing this, eventually, a cross-section of Empire can be garnered and traders will be able to work out how much of each resource is in circulation to a rough degree. Maybe in return for this service somebody could charge a few dozen crowns or so…
Do you think this might work as a business model?

What you’re doing there is collecting the data on the PD database (not available to players) during play, on the field.

You could do it, but your chances of finding EVERY player at any one visit to a unit camp is unlikely. It took me 5 events to survey each group (in a smaller Empire camp) just to get the heraldry of each. For which I needed only one or two players to be there to answer basic questions…

You COULD make an IC database of player resources. And it would likely take ages to make, and change pretty quickly:

People shift to fleets and military units for campaigns, they shift to mana sites for cash value…

For a few dozen crowns? A dozen crowns is the income from a business for a season. A few dozen crowns is the cash input for someone for a year.

If you collect the data, it’ll go out of date fairly quickly, and if you sell the data to interested parties, I doubt you’ll get more than a crown per customer.

I do not think that is a valid business model. However, I am not sure HOW to have any valid business model of size at Anvil, unless you start getting hold of the major resources, ideally through a Bourse seat.

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You may be getting mixed up between Bourse resources (weirwood, white granite, mithril and ilium) and the smaller resources (like green iron). I wouldn’t expect fluctuations in the quantity or price of a smaller resource to have any impact on Bourse seats. You’ll probably find that the big players in the Bourse game are already monitoring the Bourse resource quantities and prices.

Have you come across the Thrifty Squid? They provide a daily price guide for the smaller resources plus herbs, mana and liao - when I’m trading I tend to go off their prices and wouldn’t worry about a few rings either way (of course the people who do are the ones who make profit at it but most people are trading for what they need - it takes a lot of shoe leather to make noticeable amounts of profit!)

If you find financial research and stats fun, then I’d suggest going to the Imperial Offices and talking to Liselotte, Master of the Mint - you may get some game out of that :slight_smile:

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Please do! I’m very friendly and have access to figures only I get!
(alternatively if you are from the League, the position is up for election! Come and challenge me)

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My understanding is that the thrifty squid is good for trading with your friends, getting approximate prices to swap mana for herbs or selling for beer money, but the figures are often far enough off that you don’t want to use those prices for large-scale trading.

On the other hand, a fun trading game is to compare the Thrifty Squid to resource prices in certain trading posts and then mercilessly exploit the differences.

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If you really want to know the number and type of personal resources may I suggest ritual magic. You could talk to a mage about making an arcane Projection that would basically culminate into PD letting you look at the database. It probably won’t be cheap, but it may be worth a shot. Would you like more info?

No thanks, my character is nowhere near a ritualist XD and I’m not much into the economics game anyway, I was just wondering about the idea in theory. It looks to be much harder than I first imagined, but I expect some thrifty coven will make an arcane projection like that and sell the results for lots of money. Thanks for the help everybody.

The Thrifty Squid and its in-depth analytical sister paper the Inky Depths are the best economic research on the field.
They are produced conscientiously from observed figures. I interviewed their editor for the The Oathwright and came away full of respect.

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I think what the Thrifty Squid is doing happens to be great work, but too many players take it as an authority rather than a starting point. They see crystal mana listed as ‘33-35r’ and they get upset when they are asked to buy for more or sell for less.

Prices fluctuate according to supply and demand. If you can walk away from the person asking too much for something or offering too little, that’s great. If not, you need to put down the thrifty squid and negotiate like a grown-up.

When you are standing at the regio and the ritualist you need has used all of their mana crystals up, the Freeborn with a big sack of them from the public auction is right to ask 40r each. Conversely, when I know I just bought crystal mana from a bloke in the Peacock’s Tale for a crown a piece and now have enough for all the rituals I was planning, I’m not going to offer you more than maybe 25r each.

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