Thanks for the Dubhtraig Party Grendal! Here's the Bill


#1

As some of you may know I like economics and i like military strategy. Thanks to the latest winds of war and the news out of Dubhtraig i will attempt to combine these two in order to determine the economic impact of the raid. This is mostly for fun and everything is a guesstimate (“this is the best I could do with the available information” will be a bit of a running theme here)

This will be divided into two sections. The bill and how i arrived at the cost. I will endeavor to base the costs off of things i found off the wiki (and will go more into depth as to how i got these numbers in the second section), but if your trying to buy wains or art or slaves at Anvil THIS IS ONLY AN ESTIMATE! ACTUAL VALUE OF GOODS MUST BE DETERMINED IN THE FIELD!

So, without further statements of intentions, disclaimers and ass coverage I present:


The Bill:

Known costs-
Miscellaneous loot: 1501.5 Thrones
Bourse resources: 160 Thrones
Slaves*: 750 to 1000 Thrones
Loss of Bourse resource production: 200 Thrones
Shipyard Great Work: 237.5 Thrones
Loss of great work income: 22.5 Thrones

Total known cost: 2871.5 to 3121.5 thrones

Unknown Costs:
Collateral damage ( the burning of the city including “garishly decorated palaces”, “the great walled palace of Salt Lord Suriad”, “the shambolic shanty town that sprawls beneath the towers of the Salt Lord”, ect.)
Damage to the two forts in the territory (“the soldiers and ships associated with the two fortifications have both seen significant losses that will need replacing before those castles can operate at full strength - placing a further drain on the coffers of the Salt Lords.”)

@Michael made some really good observations and ideas about some of the possible far reaching economic impacts of the raid here


Cost breakdown:
Slaves: 4 crowns. This one is a bit wobbly and deep cut, but there is a rough estimate as to the value of slaves on the wiki. In volume 4 of echoes of the labyrinth, in the past life of Elka Gremani, someone was fined 8 crowns for releasing 2 slaves from slavers (4 crowns each for loss of property). Here is where it gets wobbly. we have no way of knowing if Imperial slaves were worth more than Grendal slaves (though the Imperal slaves did seem to have no special skill sets and thus were the same quality as average, if in better condition since they were new) or how much the virtue defense in the trial mitigated some of the cost, but again this is the best i could do with the given information.
*Edit: As mention in a comment below, the cost of slaves is almost certainly inflated to not only cover the value of the slaves but also punitive damages for commiting a crime. That said, "this is the best I could do with the available information”

Bourse materials: 4 Thrones per wain. This price was achieved by dividing the cost of the bourse seat from the auction by the number of wains the seat produces in a year. Half a throne was then added to each wain to account a profit margin.
For example The Brilliant Star was sold off for 333 thrones and produces 96 wains in year.
333/96= 3.47 +0.5= 3.97.

Misc loot: 312 rings each for 770 Fleets and MUs. This was achieved by taking the total effective force in the raid (77000) and dividing it by 100 to get a rough guesstimate of the number of fleets and MUs that took part in the raid. This doesn’t take into account the effects of enchantments, upgrades and mana site units, but without a definitive list this is the best i can do. after the (inaccurate) number of units is calculated (770) this was then multiplied by the normal pay for paid work/ privateering (180 rings assuming Fleet=Business= MU) plus the added gains from the opportunity (180+132=312 rings).
So, (770*312)/160=1501.5 Thrones

Shipyard: This the cost of a standard shipyard great work using the prices for bourse resources above. I know that the WoW stated that it wasn’t totally destroyed, but it also states that it wasn’t an average sized shipyard. So the assumption here is that the raid would have destroyed a minimum sized shipyard, but instead heavily damaged a large one with a proportional impact.


#2

Very impressive. I certainly wouldn’t have the patience to do this and probably wouldn’t know where to start. Do you want me to see if I can pick up any definite stats for anything (like number of ships sunk), when I got to E1?


#3

I suspect that definative numbers, given that this wasn’t a military engagement of army vs army, will remain canonicly uncertain, beyond the rather vague details on the WoW…


#4

Ah okay, I thought there might be someone with the numbers in the senate.


#5

though ic ould definitely see someone publishing some sorts of numbers to the entire Empire (“Hey Civil Service, its the Synod. Could you gather and distribute information on how virtuously awesome that was!”). This was something for the history books and furthermore is a great moral booster/ propaganda.


#6

The only issue is when the retaliate and sack Savros, Siroc and Necropolis then raise them to the ground…


#7

Well at least Necropolis isn’t directly by the sea so it’s more difficult to raid. We are also fortifying Necopolis, Feroz and upgrading the forts in Sarvos. So we’ll see what happens, who knows the Grendel might pull back to defend their territory for a season or two?


#8

Without going to IC here - the fort’s are not really complete yet…


#9

True, 3 more seasons to go on them fingers crossed.


#10

I’m confused by your cost estimate for Bourse resources as a whole - I think have neglected to include the wains from the free seats in your division?

Foreign nations rarely trade wains for coin, so it is hard to get an estimate of their value abroad - looking at the scales on the docks might be as valid an argument. Including the cost of the person buying the seat (for their own private use) and the cost the Senate pays to upkeep every seat in the same calculation is a little odd as these are never paid by the same people.


#11

2 seasons. They were sped up with a ritual :slight_smile:


#12

I’d still personally love to see a James-esque foray into the Broken Shore, follow up the sucker-punch. And then go “you still sure you don’t want peace?”


#13

Unfortunately outside player events you’re not going to get missions through the sentinel gate unless there are armies in the territory or it’s inside the Empire. The Sentinel Gate is already totally OP and even with eternal assistance it needs to have some limits.

But hey if you want to invade the Broken Shore I’ll be cheering you along. Just head south from Spiral and work your way round the coast :smiley: . Not sure if you’ll need some fleets for the last bit but hey we can find out…


#14

Oh, no I meant actually shoving armies through rather than getting more plot help. Was referencing Emperor James’s reign, where armies would go beyond the border of the Empire, rough the barbarians up a bit, then come back.


#15

Oh that’s easier, just get 4-5 navies built and you’re golden :slight_smile:. Anyway I’m sure some folk in the League were measuring up that palace in Dubhtraig for curtains while they were over there…


#16

Why do we need navies? “Without an opportunity it is only possible to enter Mareave through Apstrus.”
Just shove them through Spiral (bit unpleasant but they can deal with it), spend a season enjoying the sun and freeing slaves, then come back.


#17

Do it, Ambition and all that, lots of fun stuff in Mareave :slight_smile:.


#18

Some of the limits on the Sentinel gate:

Only operates in the same time zone as Anvil
Requires equal levels of air pressure and humidity on both sides.

This is why it only sends us to places with the same relative time and weather as Anvil.

Also, it’s Dawnish. Which explains the amount of desperate rescue missions, dashing interventions, and critical, tipping-a-desperate-balance junctures into which it throws us…

(I don’t know the rules behind it, this is just from observations of the damn thing)


#19

It’s actually Urizeni. Hence why it only sends us to places where the Net of the Heavens converges, and a single decisive action can change the course of destiny.


#20

it’s a strong independent gate and it don’t need no nation to define it